Can And Can't Win: Listed Topcat Video Cup

AUNT Virginia is favourite to break her black-type duck when she takes her place in the Listed Topcat Video Cup at The Meadows on Saturday night.

Victoria's National Distance Championship representative has contested six group races previously but has only one placing to show for it. The daughter of Fernando Bale is racing in career best form and despite drawing box six, has been installed favourite to claim the $15,000 winner's cheque.

FIELDS AND FORM THE MEADOWS SATURDAY NIGHT

Mepunga Surprise looms as her biggest danger, running nine lengths faster than Aunt Virginia in their respective heats last Saturday night.

Five of the seven finalists opened at single figure quote indicating the evenness of the 730m event. 

First run over 600m, the Topcat Video boasts an impressive honour roll since changing to the distance trip, including Miata, Fanta Bale and Tornado Tears. Here's why each runner can can – and can't – add their name to the star-studded honour roll.

1. HENRY INTENTION

Trainer: Tom O'Neill

Heat time: 43.21 (3rd to Mepunga Surprise)

Why he can win: A newcomer to the staying ranks, his run in the heats was just his second over the ‘half-mile' with both runs being in solid time. Should continue to improve with racing and box one is a plus.

Why he can't win: Lacks early speed and is going to need luck at some point in running.

2. DRILL SERGEANT

Trainer: Shane Drummond

Heat time: 42.82 (2nd to Mepunga Sunrise)

Why he can win: Proven group class stayer, winner of the Sale Cup and runner up in his other two appearances at the top level. Placed in his last nine starts and 25 of last 29. Has early speed and draw is a big plus.

Why he can't win: Can be found out late in his races, winning just 3 of his 16 starts over 700m+.

3. GALACTIC SPARTAN

Trainer: Matthew Lanigan

Heat time: 43.35 (fourth to Aunt Virginia)

Why he can win: Has just 14 starts to his name and has continued to improve with racing. Should be reasonably placed early and hasn't been far away in his two staying starts to date.

Why he can't win: Won his first three races but just one of 11 since. This is a steep step up in class.

4. SHAKE AND BAKE

Trainer: Jeff Britton

Heat time: 43.35 (third to Aunt Virginia)

Why she can win: There's a sense of timing about this emergence as a stayer. Won impressively on her staying debut, leading all of the way in good time and has shown she is capable of doing it at both ends over the longer journey since. Was unlucky late last week and should get a clearer run early here.

Why she can't win: Is yet to win out of mixed grade and was well beaten in her previous attempt in open class.

5. BLACK SILENCER

Trainer: Kerrie White

Heat time: 43.25 (fourth to Mepunga Surprise)

Why he can win: A winner from 460m to 715m with wins in BON time at both extremes. Should be at peak fitness for this trip.

Why he can't win: Lacks early speed and this draw is worse than his heat in which he was a well beaten favourite.  

6. AUNT VIRGINIA

Trainer: John Paraskevas

Heat time: 43.24

Why she can win: Arguably Victoria's best stayer which impressed through the recent Victorian Distance Championship. Placed this track and distance at Group 3 level in July, can lead all of the way or come from behind. 

Why she can't win: Time was only modest last week and had the run of the race. Won't get that sort of run from box 6.

7. MEPUNGA SURPRISE

Trainer: Jeff Britton

Heat time: 42.70

Why she can win: Fastest heat winner and draw should suit. Well travelled, experienced and consistent with the class to run a time few others in this race can. 

Why she can't: Has put in big runs the last three weeks and may need to repeat that effort again on Saturday night.

8. KRAKEN CHIEF

Trainer: Kevin Elyes

Heat time: 43.34 (second to Aunt Virginia)

Why he can win: A winner at three of his last five and led for a long way on his staying debut before being nabbed by Aunt Virginia late.

Why he can't win: Felt the pinch late in his heat and only ran a modest time. Hard to see improvement second up over the trip.

The Verdict: Mepunga Surprise (7) looks like a dog that will have a big influence over the big staying features later in spring. Has the speed and the box draw to make a statement here. Drill Sergeant (2) is never far away and will look the winner at some point. Aunt Virginia (6) is proven at this level, and Henry Intention (1) can fill a hole from that draw.