Historical Guide To Finding The Melbourne Cup Winner

CAN history help predict the future? 

The modern Melbourne Cup was first run in 1956 and has since become one of the sport's most storied races. 

Saturday night's 69th running of the great race promises to be one of the most intriguing – and most exciting – renewals featuring rising stars, outstanding veterans and speed to burn.

FIELDS AND FORM SANDOWN PARK SATURDAY NIGHT

While the winner will create history, but to win some will need to defy it. Here's some key numbers from Melbourne Cup winners past and how this year's field rates.

Early speed is key

Since the current surface and timing system were installed ahead of the 2010 Melbourne Cup, just two greyhounds have won the Cup when not in the first three at the first mark. Dyna Double One (2015) famously nailed the great Fernando Bale on the line, while Yachi Bale (2023) came from near last at box rise to claim his famous victory.

Yachi Bale's win was a clear outlier when it comes to early speed – his first split of 5.24 was 0.08 slower than El Grand Senor (5.16) in 2010. Excluding those three winners, the average first split to win a Melbourne Cup is a slashing 5.02. While Black Magic Opal's 4.93 race record split may not be in danger on Saturday night, there's a good chance that first split average will continue to come down. 

Mid race matters

The average second split since 2010 is 18.68, and given the performances from the heat, the winner will all but certainly break this mark. Black Magic Opal holds the race record at 18.57, a mark Sunset Frazier obliterated when setting the split record (18.35) in his heat.

Boys club

Miss Envy is the only bitch in the final and would become the first female to win the race since Got A Moment in 2012. In fact, only three bitches (Got A Moment, Betty's Angel and Classic Capri) have won the race since 1991.

Old and New

Since accurate Fasttrack records began (1986), just two greyhounds yet to celebrate their second birthdays have won the race – Hua (1988) and Kantarn Bale (1999). Joey The Jet enters the Cup three weeks shy of his second birthday.

Aussie Rocks became the oldest greyhound to win the Cup (at 3 years, 9 months) last year, one of just seven greyhounds aged 3 years to win the race. Should Big Energy be successful, he'll be the oldest greyhound to win the race.

Take 2

Speaking of Big Energy, he'd become the second greyhound to win the race at its second attempt following Classic Capri in 2001.

Experience matters

Since 1987, the average number of races the Cup winner had started prior to the Cup is 37. Just one greyhound, Kantarn Bale, had started less than 10 starts. Joey The Jet (nine) and Epitomize (eight) enter the Cup with single figure race starts. 

False favourite?

Interestingly, just three favourites have won the race over the last 20 years (El Grand Senor, Black Magic Opal, Aston Dee Bee), however the favourite has missed a place just three times since 2010.

Since the year 2000, just three greyhounds have started at a double figure quote – Aussie Rocks ($16.40), Ando's Mac ($12.90), Got A Moment ($11.60) and Classic Capri, who is the longest priced winner in the history of the Cup at $25.90.

Fastest isn't always best

Aston Dee Bee (2017) was the last fastest qualifier to win the Cup, one of just four to have done so since 2010.

Form leading in

Since 2010, Got A Moment (2012) and Yachi Bale (2022) were the only greyhounds to win the Cup in their first group final appearance. Interestingly, both went on to win another group 1. Joey The Jet is the only greyhound in this year's final yet to appear in a group final.

The last five Cup winners all won having their third start at Sandown Park in as many weeks (three in a Prelude, two in the Shootut prior to the heats). Explicit is the only greyhound in this year's Cup that had a week away from the track heading into the heats.

Do boxes matter?

While overall numbers suggest box 1 is a big advantage at Sandown Park (24.67% winners over 515m in 2024), the Cup winner has worn the red vest just twice since 2004. Box 5, statistically the worst box at Sandown Park (11.15% over 515m in 2024) has provided three of the last eight winners.

Just two of the last 35 Cup winners have jumped from box 7.

Home ground advantage

Ando's Mac is the only interstate trained greyhound in the last 23 years to win the Cup. Miss Envy (WA) is aiming to become the first West Australian greyhound to claim the Cup (though connections of Sunset Frazier, Buddy Monelli and Big Energy would rightly claim the honours if they are successful).

The Trainer 

The Thompson family (Jason and Seona) will prepare their 28th and 29th Melbourne Cup runners on Saturday night, having led home four Cup winners and eight placegetters since 1994 and are the only trainers with a runner to have won the race before. 

The last two Cups (Yachi Bale, Mark Delbridge and Aussie Rocks, Geoff Mitchell) have been won by trainers preparing their first Cup finalists. Brad Greenough, Krystal Shinners and Jihad Talgi will all appear in the Cup final for the first time on Saturday night.